Northwest Heatwave is 'historic,' 'unprecedented,' but not unexpected
Climate scientists have been warning of this disaster for 30 years.
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Yes, we all know that weather and climate are not the same things but this month’s award for weather forecasting (if there were such a thing) should surely go to Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at UCLA and the National Center for Atmospheric Research, who issued a prophetic warning two weeks ago about the heatwave that is now boiling the American Northwest where temperatures have gone totally Death Valley, shattering heat records that have stood for decades. In his blog, Weather West, Swain wrote on June 14:
I’ll cut to the chase: it’s going to be very hot across the inland 3/4 of California beginning Wednesday or Thursday and continuing through at least Saturday–and perhaps into the early portion of next week. Many areas are likely to experience record temperatures during this relatively early-season heatwave–especially across the Central Valley and the deserts of SE CA, though possibly elsewhere. All-time June monthly records may plausibly fall in these places, and there’s even a chance that a few spots could approach all-time record high temperatures (again, most likely in the southern Sacramento/San Joaquin Valleys and in the SE desert counties).
This heatwave will be caused by a record-strength mid-June high pressure system over the Four Corners region of the Southwest that will slowly retrogress (move westward) toward CA by Thursday. All-time record high temperatures are possible in other interior SW areas already accustomed to extreme heat–including both southern Nevada and western Arizona (Las Vegas and Lake Havasu City may see their highest temperatures in recorded history). The blistering heat across these regions (well above 120F in some lower desert spots) will last for many consecutive days in these areas, and will pose major risks to public health.
Nearly 40 million residents from Northern California through much of Oregon, Washington state and Idaho, and western Canada are under excessive heat warnings, starting Saturday and lasting into next week. Many people who don’t have air conditioners because they don’t usually need them are getting an unsolicited preview of just how unbearable life can quickly become in an age where extreme weather is more and more common.
The Weather Service in Spokane warns:
“This heat will be historic, dangerous, prolonged and unprecedented. We can’t stress enough how impactful this heat will be to nearly every person and community in the Pacific and Inland Northwest region."
As Daniel Swain predicted, the current conditions were created by a strong dome of high pressure that is parked over southern portions of Canada's British Columbia province which causes sinking air and downsloping over the Cascades and the Willamette Valley in Oregon and Washington.
Extreme heatwaves are now an estimated 3 to 5 degrees Fahrenheit warmer across the US, according to Michael Wehner, a senior scientist at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. Noah Diffenbaugh, a climate and earth systems scientist at Stanford University, and fellow researchers (including Daniel Swain) have found that increasingly extreme spells of heat and drought, as well as rain and snow, are up to five times as likely to occur over large stretches of the planet in coming decades as global temperatures continue to climb.
“We found that global warming has increased the odds of record hot daily temperatures over more than 80% of the globe, The southwestern U.S. is one of the areas where we find a strong influence of global warming on record daily hot temperatures.”
The strange and unprecedented weather fits in with the pattern climate scientists have been predicting for 30 years if nothing were done to stop carbon emissions. Swain is quoted in the San Francisco Chronicle:
“We’ve gotten to the point where, when it comes to extreme heatwaves, there is almost always a human fingerprint on them now. Every study we’ve done says that climate change is making heatwaves worse and more frequent.”
In a new post on June 25 blog, Swain also predicted that the extreme heat is likely to make the growing Southwest drought conditions worse:
This heatwave will have extremely high societal impacts across the Pacific NW and SW Canada, and will pose a very serious public health threat in a region where structures are not designed to shed heat and where active home cooling (i.e., air conditioning) is uncommon. Heat of this incredible magnitude will not only lead to many heat-related illnesses, but could also disrupt both transportation and electricity-distribution infrastructure–as well as turbo-charging wildfire risk in the densely forested areas that characterize much of the region.
I don’t know about you but I can’t help thinking that the fact that we’re now getting weather forecasts from climate scientists is not a good thing.
Dig Deeper
Severe heatwave across California interior and broader Southwest this week (WeatherWest)
History of Pacific Northwest Heat Waves: Synoptic Pattern and Trends
The effect of anthropogenic climate change on heat waves in the United States.
Anthropogenic warming has increased drought risk in California
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