Net zero by 2050 is possible. But, is it plausible?
Spoiler Alert: Not unless current efforts to bring about the necessary societal transformation get far more ambitious.
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If you’re the kind of environmentalist who likes their prognostication with a few grains of salt, the just-released Climate Futures Outlook 2021 issued by the Hamburg-based Cluster of Excellence “Climate, Climatic Change, and Society” (CLICCS) is your kind of academic study. The Outlook, and future iterations, attempts to assess which climate futures—future joint developments of climate and society—are possible and which are plausible which I interpret, perhaps too broadly, as informed predictions of the likelihood of various climate targets being achieved given what we know now about the physical and social barriers. The premise is straightforward enough:
This and future Outlooks are dedicated to help answer questions such as: Toward which future is the Earth’s climate moving? What might the climate look like in 2050, or in 2100? And what type of society might evolve together with the changing climate? We cannot accurately predict this future, but we can use our joint understanding of the physical and the social worlds to identify which climate futures are plausible.
The key factors being explored, also referred to as social drivers, include: United Nations’ climate policy, national climate legislation, protests and social movements, divesting from fossil fuel industries, and media coverage. Detlef Stammer, Universität Hamburg professor and one of the authors of the new report, said in a press release:
"Which climate futures are plausible is not only a physical question, it is at present especially a social one. In the Hamburg Climate Futures Outlook we investigate the transformative power of social processes and have developed a completely new method for doing so. We'll then combine the outcomes with findings from the natural sciences, allowing us to narrow down, step by step, what's plausible."
"The social challenge is far greater than many people can imagine. As such, our findings represent a wake-up call for the political community and society at large."
Crucially, none of the ten social drivers assessed in the Outlook appear to have enough momentum to reach deep decarbonization by 2050. Yet reaching deep decarbonization by mid-century is vital if the climate targets laid out in the Paris Agreement are to be achieved.
However, six of the drivers could foster gradual decarbonization, the report states. Explained Prof. Anita Engels, a social scientist at Universität Hamburg and CLICCS Co-Chair:
“The majority of the factors we evaluated certainly support the net-zero goal. For example, the factor ‘climate policy’ has been strengthened by the USA’s reentry into the Paris Agreement, At the same time, the extent to which climate protests can continue to put pressure on governments after COVID-19 will be an important aspect.”
The report notes that another crucial driver is the divestment from fossil fuels. However, companies often operate under long investment cycles, which means the effects will only become apparent down the road. It is also lukewarm on the prospects for workable carbon capture and storage technologies of sufficient scale.
The bad news, good news bottom line:
“Our results imply that global surface warming of less than 1.7 degrees Celsius by the year 2100 is not plausible, but nor is a rise of 4.9 degrees or more.”
What does our assessment mean for climate futures? Deep decarbonization by 2050, while currently not plausible, is not impossible. However, if deep decarbonization is to be achieved by 2050, it requires increased societal pressure and political momentum for climate action, the implementation and worldwide diffusion of climate-friendly laws, policies, and infrastructures, and the redirection of financial resources away from fossil fuel engagements toward climate mitigation. We conclude from our social plausibility assessment that longterm pledges in line with deep decarbonization are insufficient on their own. Effective, short-term actions that align with these long-term pledges must also be taken in the coming decade. Otherwise, deep decarbonization by 2050 will indeed become impossible.
Have a nice day.
More than 40 researchers from the Cluster of Excellence CLICCS are contributing authors of the Hamburg Climate Futures Outlook. They hail from such diverse disciplines as the natural sciences, social sciences, economics and law. In addition, there are ca. 20 national and international reviewers. With the development of the Social Plausibility Assessment Framework, the Cluster has introduced a new scientific method for both assessing the status quo of social drivers and projecting their future trajectory. From 2021 onwards, the Hamburg Climate Futures Outlook will be released annually.
The Cluster of Excellence Climate, Climatic Change, and Society (CLICCS) at Universität Hamburg is funded by the German Research Foundation (DFG). Based at the Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN) at Universität Hamburg, it works in close cooperation with eleven partner institutes, including the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg, the Helmholtz Centre Hereon and the German Climate Computing Center.
Dig Deeper
Hamburg Climate Futures Outlook
What Matters Most Is Which Path We’re On
Complete Report (pdf)
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