Get ready for another long brutal summer of extreme weather
The pandemic may be fading in the U.S. but hurricanes and wildfires are back and scarier than ever.
Welcome to EarthWatch, the environmental news and opinion newsletter for people who think you should never turn your back on Mother Earth—written by me, Jerry Bowles, an ancient scribbler who has been around the Sun a few times and doesn’t need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows.
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Before Buttercup and our tres charmant Coton du Tulears—Sophie and Pearl— moved to Mt. Pleasant, SC, just across the river from Charleston eight years ago, I had never thought much about hurricanes. We didn’t have them in West Virginia where I grew up or in mid-town Manhattan where I lived for 40 years. Now, after one large tree on the roof and another that missed by two feet, I’m a believer. Extreme weather is real and it can seriously funk you up.
Once more Climate Joe is riding to the rescue. With only a week to go before the official start of hurricane season and the West bracing for new wildfires, the Administration announced it will direct $1 billion into pre-disaster mitigation resources for communities, states, and Tribal governments to prepare for extreme weather events and other disasters. It’s a drop in the bucket compared to actual cost, but it’s something. Here’s the White House fact sheet:
In 2020, the United States experienced a record year for extreme weather, including an unprecedented 30 named storms in the Atlantic Basin. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is anticipating another above-normal hurricane season this year.
The costs of extreme weather events, in lives and economic damage, have been staggering. Last year alone, communities across the United States suffered through 22 separate weather and climate-related disasters with loses exceeding $1 billion each, shattering previous records, at a cumulative price tag of nearly $100 billion. This year has already wrought devastation, as unusual winter storms crossed Texas and the south.
This year could be just as bad. For 2021, NOAA is predicting a likely range of 13 to 20 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 6 to 10 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3 to 5 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher) is expected. NOAA provides these ranges with a 70 percent confidence. The Atlantic hurricane season extends from June 1 through November 30 but we’ve already had a named storm so things are moving quickly.
California's top fire officials are warning that this upcoming fire season could quickly eclipse last year’s record when California endured its worst fire season ever—more than four million acres burned—including six of the most destructive events in the state's history. For the first time since 2014, parts of Northern California are seeing a May "red flag" fire warning due to drought and windy conditions.
As climate change threatens to bring more extreme events like increased floods, sea level rise, and intensifying droughts and wildfires, it is our responsibility to better prepare and support communities, families, and businesses before disaster – not just after. This includes investing in climate research to improve our understanding of these extreme weather events and our decision making on climate resilience, adaptation, and mitigation. It also means ensuring that communities have the resources they need to build resilience prior to these crises.
The $1 billion will be provided by FEMA through the Building Resilient Infrastructure and Communities (BRIC) program, which helps communities prepare in advance for hurricanes, wildfires, and other natural disasters. The administration will target roughly 40 percent of the additional money to disadvantaged areas.
The science on the relationship between anthropogenic driven global warming and the frequency of tropical cyclones (hurricanes) is not as airtight as it might be but there is little doubt that manmade warming is increasing the severity of the top categories of hurricanes in terms of wind speeds, rain, and worsened storm surge Sea level rise and the loss of protective ecosystems is exacerbating the problem, making coastal communities particularly vulnerable to erosion and flooding from storm surges. (You’ll find links to some of the most important scientific research on this topic in the article from Yale Climate Connections linked to below). I’m hoping that some of the nerds who read this newsletter will take a look at it and tell me if I’m on target or not.
In the meantime, amateur environmentalist that I am, I will rely for guidance on a piece of anecdotal evidence. Three property and casualty insurance companies in Florida—which had more than 100,000 property claim lawsuits filed in 2020— have dropped more than 50,000 homeowner policies so far this year. Now, if you’ll excuse me, I need to take a look at some trees in my yard.
Dig Deeper
How climate change is making hurricanes more dangerous (Yale Climate Connections)
Recent increases in tropical cyclone intensification rates (Nature Communications)
NOAA predicts another active Atlantic hurricane season (NOAA)
Rethinking Disaster Readiness Before a Potentially Active Summer (Homeland Security Today
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